THE PERRY FACTOR – AT 8:46 A.M. ET:  Well, there's one thing about Rick Perry, he certainly gets the buzz going. 

Today The Hill features a piece quoting Republicans in Congress saying Perry must deal better with his political vulnerabilities unless he wants to lose the nomination.  Last night several commentators, especially Gloria Borger at CNN, went nearly hysterical over Perry's direct attack on Obama's Mideast policy.  Borger cited the old tradition that politics stops at the water's edge.  Only problem is, Borger, a generally responsible analyst, never noted the overwhelming viciousness of Democratic attacks on George W. Bush's foreign policy, attacks launched while American soldiers were in the field.

And this morning comes an analysis by top political observer Charlie Cook, who says that the GOP nomination is Perry's to lose...but that he might do it.  This is in National Journal:

The 2012 Republican presidential nomination is Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s to lose. The question is: Will he blow it? To be sure, there are less polarizing Republicans, ones who are, have been, or should have been running, who would stand a better chance of winning over the between-the-40-yard-line independents who tend to decide big elections. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney would stand a better chance of winning; former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty would not likely have offended the middle; and my guess is that Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, if they had run, would have fared better as well. But Perry is the dominant figure right now and, given the listless economy, even Perry, if nominated, would have a 50-50 chance of beating President Obama (Sarah Palin or Michele Bachmann, maybe not).

Over the next 60 to 90 days, through this endless stream of debates and hundreds of speeches, appearances, and public utterances, the critical question will be: Does Rick Perry demonstrate the capacity to grow and mature as a candidate and to maximize his chances of winning a general election, or does he fail to recognize the differences between voters in the suburbs of Philadelphia, Columbus, or Denver and those in Houston, Dallas, Waco, or Amarillo?

And something we've been saying here:

One lesson that national Republican figures, particularly the more conservative ones, have to learn is that Republican and conservative national candidates are never likely to get more than their fair share of breaks from the news media. Simply put, they have to be careful—in Texas, not so much, but on the national stage, absolutely. But careful doesn’t come naturally to some candidates—Perry and Bachmann come to mind—and there is a terrible price to be paid for not being careful...

...Historically, electability is not among the top considerations in the minds of most voters in making their nomination choices. But we are not living in normal times. Just as liberals became apoplectic with George W. Bush, conservatives have come to be that way with President Obama. Polls show the party is evenly split today on the question of electability and ideological compatibility, but right now, all the top Republicans are running relatively even with Obama.

That is something Republicans haven't really absorbed.  Despite Obama's low popularity ratings, he is holding his own in poll matchups with specific Republicans.

Perry has made, and will make, more mistakes. The question is whether he learns and grows from them. Trial and error is a fantastic teacher, assuming one recognizes and learns from the errors. It’s more about learning how to say things: showing more judiciousness, contemplating the consequences of saying things one way versus another. If he learns, if he can effectively make the turn from being a successful practitioner in a one-party state to being an effective candidate in a much more ideologically diverse state, the nomination is his.

COMMENT:  There will be another GOP debate tomorrow night, in Orlando.  The eyes will be on Perry.  His performance in his first debate was fine, less than brilliant but good enough to keep him respectable.  His performance last week was less good.  He'll be given one or two more chances by party insiders and the news media.  He's got to produce tomorrow night – with specific answers, a national platform, a presidential style.

Perry is known as a strong campaigner.  His political staff is highly respected.  But Perry has never been on the national stage, as compared with Ronald Reagan in 1980, who'd been a national figure for decades.

We'll also be watching Mitt Romney tomorrow night, who has a realistic chance of regaining frontrunner status assuming 1) Perry stumbles and 2) he can expand on the mastery of issues he's shown in debate thus far.

I urge you to tune in on Fox.  This will be very interesting.

September 21, 2011